FTX, the crypto derivatives exchange, has recently launched “TRUMP,” a new product for futures trading that lets users bet on the re-election of President Trump in 2020.
“So far most of the volume has traded on the offer, implying that traders think Trump is likely to win re-election,” an FTX representative said.
The TRUMP crypto commodity is essentially a $1-value futures contract if Trump wins presidential election in 2020 and $0 if he does not.
The value of TRUMP can be understood at any given moment as an expression of how the traders think he is to win at any given moment. When TRUMP is worth $0.50, users do say the Donald’s victory is a 50-50 shot.
In particular, FTX prohibits the use of TRUMP in a number of countries, including the European Union, Hong Kong and Canada. Even in the United States, the very location of the election which determines the ultimate value of the TRUMP crypto contract, the use of the contract is prohibited.
Influencer and Crypto trader @MoonOverlord has offered a comedic response to geographic restrictions, tweeting:
“New “Trump Futures” on FTX
Where are you supposed to trade this from the Bermuda Triangle”
Beginning Always Complex
Over many years, crypto derivatives trading has significantly widespread, with exchanges such as BitMEX and OKEx reporting substantial trading volume for their Bitcoin futures trading items. Mainstream finance has jumped into the bandwagon with the introduction of Bitcoin futures trading by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange in 2017, and its eventual launch of trading options in 2020.
FTX Decided on Futures Instead of Smart Contracts
An FTX representative said:
“There are two main reasons that we used a futures contract instead of a smart contract. The first is that futures allow for much more powerful and flexible margin; the second is that a smart contract would rely on a blockchain-based oracle to settle the contract anyway, which would mostly defeat the attempt at decentralizing the result.”